{"id":1024,"date":"2026-01-22T11:52:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T16:52:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/?p=1024"},"modified":"2026-01-22T11:52:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T16:52:23","slug":"justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisors1.bradcable.com\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Justin\u2019s Market Musings I What to Expect I January 22, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Happy New Year everyone! I hope your holidays were meaningful and (somewhat) relaxing. I always find year-end is a great opportunity to recharge for the upcoming year. And, after coming off another darn good year in the market(s), I think it is realistic to believe your portfolio will need a recharge in 2026. That\u2019s nothing to be scared of. In fact, I\u2019d rather see a flat to slightly down year in markets instead of another double-digit gain. No, I\u2019m not insane, but I do understand how investor sentiment affects market cycles. And, without a \u201cpause that refreshes,\u201d this market does run the risk of overheating, which never ends well.<\/p>\n<p>To be clear, markets don\u2019t really care about a calendar. So, what happens over the course of a full year is foolish to predict. But there are some things I\u2019d expect to see in 2026, and I think it is helpful to prepare clients (and our team) for certain trends and risks to be aware of.<\/p>\n<p>So, here are my top 3 thoughts on 2026 (or even the next 6-12 months):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Markets aren\u2019t cheap. We have to start there. This doesn\u2019t mean the market has to crash, BUT it does mean that forward return expectations have to be moderated. We simply can\u2019t expect the same returns in the next three years that we\u2019ve seen in the last three years, at least at the major market index level (i.e., the S&amp;P, Dow, Nasdaq, etc.).\n<ul>\n<li>To be clear, markets also aren\u2019t that expensive. Don\u2019t listen to the rampant \u201cbubble\u201d talk that is constantly in the media.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Mid-term election years just typically are pretty weak. Market cycles and seasonality are a powerful force for a lot of reasons that I won\u2019t get into now. The best way to think about this mid-term election year phenomenon is just that there will be a lot of uncertainty heading into the November elections. Regardless of which team you pull for, it will be hard to know what policy directions will take the lead heading into 2027. We\u2019ll likely see some shakeups in Washington, and we\u2019ll have to reset our fiscal and monetary policy expectations as a result. Expect volatility around this type of uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Lastly, this is just a great reminder that markets are volatile EVERY year. Remember the \u201cliberation day\u201d (tariff) sell-off in April of 2025? While the cause of the volatility may \u201cseem\u201d to be different every year, in reality it is just part of markets every year. But mid-term years are the most volatile of the four-year election cycle. Here\u2019s a great piece from our partners at First Trust showing just how volatile mid-term years can be:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1026 size-large lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/Pic1Jan2026-1024x794.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"794\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/Pic1Jan2026-1024x794.png 1024w, https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/Pic1Jan2026-980x760.png 980w, https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/Pic1Jan2026-480x372.png 480w\" data-sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/794;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This just shows the average \u201cdrawdown\u201d in the S&amp;P 500 in mid-term years is 16.2%. Yes, you heard that right. On average, we have a 16.2% pullback in markets during these years. Why should we expect any different in 2026? But the good news, which is also shown here: one year after the election, we are up an average of 18.8%. So, who knows exactly how this year plays out? No one. But we should expect more volatility than we\u2019ve been used to in recent years, and I think we should expect a tougher year overall for markets.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of weakness, this is a GREAT opportunity to remind everyone that February is typically a weak month for markets. In fact, on average, it is the second-weakest month of the year, behind only September. Again, why should we expect a different outcome this year?<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1025 size-large lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/pic2Jan2026-1024x281.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"281\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/pic2Jan2026-1024x281.png 1024w, https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/pic2Jan2026-980x269.png 980w, https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/pic2Jan2026-480x132.png 480w\" data-sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) and (max-width: 980px) 980px, (min-width: 981px) 1024px, 100vw\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1024\/281;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In summary, I think this is just a good time to reset expectations for near-term market returns. There are a few things working against investors in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year. There are no guarantees, so don\u2019t try to time these trends. It doesn\u2019t work. But just be mentally prepared for some rotten stretches this year, and when we get them, don\u2019t react, except to potentially get some additional money put to work. Remember: buy low, sell higher.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll see how things shake out in due time. I\u2019ll comment on anything I feel is important to discuss. Until next time\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Happy 2026!<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 14px;\">Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any actual investment. The S&amp;P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses, or sales charges. These returns were the result of certain market factors and events which may not be repeated in the future. The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person.\u00a0Tracking: 850993-01-02<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Happy New Year everyone! I hope your holidays were meaningful and (somewhat) relaxing. I always find year-end is a great opportunity to recharge for the upcoming year. And, after coming off another darn good year in the market(s), I think it is realistic to believe your portfolio will need a recharge in 2026. That\u2019s nothing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Justin\u2019s Market Musings I What to Expect I January 22, 2026 - Linea Private Wealth Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisors1.bradcable.com\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Justin\u2019s Market Musings I What to Expect I January 22, 2026 - Linea Private Wealth Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Happy New Year everyone! I hope your holidays were meaningful and (somewhat) relaxing. I always find year-end is a great opportunity to recharge for the upcoming year. And, after coming off another darn good year in the market(s), I think it is realistic to believe your portfolio will need a recharge in 2026. That\u2019s nothing [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/advisors1.bradcable.com\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Linea Private Wealth Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-22T16:52:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lineawealth.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/142\/2026\/01\/Pic1Jan2026-1024x794.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Justin Davidson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Justin Davidson\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Justin Davidson\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/abdc1940b97b525e5ceae182e4fd6ab8\"},\"headline\":\"Justin\u2019s Market Musings I What to Expect I January 22, 2026\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-01-22T16:52:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":814,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/lineawealth.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/142\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/Pic1Jan2026-1024x794.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Blog\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/advisors1.bradcable.com\\\/lineaprivatewealthmanagement\\\/justins-market-musings-i-what-to-expect-i-january-22-2026\\\/\",\"name\":\"Justin\u2019s Market Musings I What to Expect I January 22, 2026 - 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